The Federal Reserve announced interest rate hikes. The withdrawal of quantitative easing by major developed economies and the shift in monetary policy have also led to a series of competitive tariff policies that have exacerbated international trade frictions.
What impact will this complex external environment have on the Chinese economy? "The Fed's interest rate hike, which the market had expected, actually has been partially released to the world economy, including some of the effects on global capital flows, and the impact of the Fed rate hike on China's economy has been limited in past experience and reality."
With the current international trade frictions intensifying, China still insists on expanding imports, will it increase downward pressure on the domestic economy? Mao Shengyong Analysis, according to the actual situation of China's economy, to increase product imports, including energy products, agricultural products and some High-tech products import, in fact, to balance the development of foreign trade in China, conducive to adapt to the trend of China's consumption upgrade structure. Another point of view, also conducive to China's foreign trade to a high level. "The economy is a circulatory system, economic indicators are not independent of each other, and indicators are highly correlated." On the one hand, increased imports may lead to an increase in domestic consumption, and may also boost domestic investment, on the other hand, increased imports to increase investment to expand production capacity, but also may promote export growth.
So, what is China's economic trend in the second half? Mao Shengyong Analysis, from the international perspective, external uncertainty, imbalance, instability has increased, but the world economic recovery, including the expansion of the world trade situation is a big probability event, China's foreign trade still have conditions to maintain a better development trend. From the internal point of view, the contribution of consumption to economic growth has been stable in recent years about 60%, the basic role of more and more powerful. At the same time, reform and opening-up has stimulated more vigor and new kinetic energy has been growing. From the industrial point of view, the overall trend of industrial growth has been stable and rapid growth in the service sector as a whole has maintained a steady and fast increase in the second half of China's economy to maintain a better growth situation.